Miguel
Cotto vs Saul Alvarez
These
are two fighters that I truly enjoy watching. They're both somewhat
aggressive, and from a styles make fights standpoint this could be a
fight of the year candidate. These two guys will bring the
fight to the other guy, it's not a blind aggression, but it's aggressive.
Cotto
has never been known for his defense, but in the small sampling under
Freddie Roach it appears he's much improved. Canelo has a pretty
good defense, and with all the improvements Miguel has made
defensively I still think the advantage is Canelo's.
Both
fighters can work pretty good behind the jab, but the two of them
have a tendency to get sloppy. They're easily persuaded into
brawling. The fighter who keeps his composure will win this fight. I
think the two fighters are very close to even offensively.
Miguel
Cotto
There
is no doubt that Cotto has improved upon what was already damn good
under Roach. Our first sampling of him in the ring came against a
broken and busted up Sergio Martinez. Anyone who gives him full
credit for that win doesn't know much about Sergio Martinez. He beat
him. There's no doubt about it, but Martinez was on two bad knees
that failed him.
This
is not me saying that Cotto couldn't have beaten him anyway, but if
he did I think it would have been a more competitive fight. Cotto
hits very hard. In his younger days he'd get in there and just bang,
because he knew he could take more of their punches than they could
his. He's been in there with the best fighters. Cotto knows how to
work the ring and manipulate his opponent. They're looking at his
style which isn't like anyone else. Cotto is just a little different.
Saul
Alvarez
Canelo
was out boxed when he faced Floyd Mayweather, and really he was out
boxed by both Trout and Lara. Canelo works behind a good guard, but
his footwork is not very good for a championship caliber fighter. The
fact that his guard is good and he knows how to work behind the jab
he's found success. However a quicker fighter can and has beat him. I
don't believe that Cotto has the pure boxing skills of Mayweather,
Trout, or Lara.
Canelo
has beaten all the aggressive type fighter, which Cotto can be, but
it's a controlled aggression. When fighters get wild and want to bang
it gives Canelo a chance to counter, but against quicker boxers those
countering opportunities are not there. Cotto is a mixture of both
types of fighter. He's a boxer-puncher. If he is moving and boxing
Canelo will have trouble with him. Canelo has power that could stop
Miguel Cotto, but he has to land the shots.
Fight
Prediction
Every
once in a while they give us the fights we want to see. This is one
of those for me. The fighting styles promise this will be a good one.
Both of these men will look to box, but the real question is when
will it turn into a brawl?
Cotto
will try to box with Canelo, but he will not find success that way.
He will figure that out early in the fight. I do not believe Miguel
Cotto will fight Canelo's fight and just give away rounds. I can see
him using good angles and finding a sloppy footed Canelo.
Good
technical boxers are the fighters who give Canelo problems. That is
not exactly what Cotto is. If Canelo stays true to his style and
doesn't make unnecessary changes he should win this fight, however if
Cotto is doing what he needs to do then he won't be in front of
Canelo in the power zone.
We
are not going to see something out of Canelo that we haven't seen
before. He'll predictably do what he does, but it's effective against
even the best fighters. Cotto will have to be moving and constantly
setting up different angles that are not beneficial to Canelo. He'll
need to keep him turning all night, and opening up power punching
opportunities.
I
do not believe Cotto will be able to move Canelo the way he'll need
to do in order to win. He will do it and especially early on. Cotto
has some bounce in his legs, but eventually he'll start getting
picked off and countered. When Canelo starts landing his power shots
in the mid to later rounds the fight has the potential to be stopped.
I
think Canelo wins in the 11th
round by TKO. Damage to Cotto's face will end the fight.
