In This Corner

In This Corner

Wednesday, April 29, 2015

Fight Prediction - Mayweather vs Pacquiao

Can Pac-Man Shock the World?

If you look at predictions for the fight most fans and fighters are going with Mayweather. If you listen to their reasoning it becomes hard to argue against it. If Manny can pull this off it would be a bigger upset then it would be given credit for. The boxing public has made Pacquiao the dog, but everyone expects him to give Mayweather a good fight.

Manny comes in at angles that Mayweather saw in the Maidana fight. Manny is quicker than Maidana and had more hand speed. There is also the fact that Pac-Man is left handed, and there are those who believe that will create problems for Floyd. I'm not of that opinion. He might not be as comfortable and he would be with an orthodox fighter. I think Manny's best chance to win comes from the alleged hate he has for Floyd.

Will Floyd Do What He Does Best?

Floyd is unquestionably one of the best fighters in boxing history. I had said that he needed a fight with Pacquiao to cement that legacy, and it really didn't matter if he won or not. Pac-Man is no different than many of the other legendary fighters Floyd took out. He waited for a sign that they were on the way down. Either way their names are on the list of fighters that have gone down. They might not have been in their primes, but Floyd defeated them just as he intendeds on doing to Pacquiao. Not only did he beat them but the contests were not really close. I do expect Pacquiao to make a good fight of it. 

Floyd Mayweather takes his opponents best attributes away from them, and forces them to fight him the way he wants to fight. I'm not sure how he will neutralize the Pacquiao speed or how he will keep him from getting good angles, but he always has found a way to outsmart his opponent. The size advantage over Pac-Man will be the difference maker. Maidana found success against Mayweather in the first fight. He took good angles and consistently caught Floyd with the overhand right. He applied enough pressure to be a problem. In the rematch he brought even more pressure, but he wasn't as effective as it had been before. 

  The Fight

Floyd will likely look to utilize the jab and use his size advantage. Manny will likely use his quickness and hand speed to move inside on Manyweather. It could be somewhat of a chess match early. Floyd trying to keep Manny outside, and his success in the fight will be determined on how well he's able to do it. Manny throws shots while he's moving in, and he continues to pound once he's inside. That should present Mayweather with counter punching opportunities. If that's how it goes the advantage has to go to Mayweather. If Floyd doesn't have power that can back Manny up he'll try to walk him down and bang on the inside. It worked for a slower Maidana, but he had more size than Pacquiao. 

Manny must find a way to get inside on Mayweather and make him pay when he gets in there. Getting out without getting caught with something is equally important. Especially early while Floyd is still sharp and has snap on his punches. Marquez caught Pac-Man on the way in, and Floyd is likely to be looking for the same opportunity. Manny has the speed to compete, however Mayweather's range and size will probably dictate the outcome. The hand speed is so close that you have to look at something else to spot the edge, and that is the size of Mayweather. 

If he wanted to Mayweather could fight at middleweight. I think the size difference will be the determining factor on fight night. Manny won't be able to crack the shell like Maidana did. Mayweather will look to catch and shoot the smaller man. Manny attacks from angles that leave his opponents nearly defenseless. I do believe he can get around the shoulder roll, and I do believe he will crack Mayweather's shell defense. The fight will hinge on Manny's defense. We know he can go balls to the wall and throw nine hundred punches, but can he avoid Mayweather countering on his aggression? I think he can. 

The Prediction

I think the fight will go the distance. I also think Manny will be explaining how he did the best he could but came up short. There is no way Manny is going to knock Mayweather out, and the chances are equally as low that he'll outpoint him. Styles make fights and when you look at both men's styles all signs point to Mayweather. I think this is the wrong kind of fighter for Pacquiao. He had trouble with Tim Bradley, even though I thought he won both fights against him. That may be the closest fighter in style that Manny has faced, and Mayweather is ten times better than Bradley. Five years ago Floyd didn't want to take a chance against Pacquiao speed, but now Floyd knows it's diminished to the point that Manny won't have a single advantage. 

Floyd Mayweather by unanimous decision. 

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