Miguel Cotto vs Saul Alvarez
These are two fighters that I truly enjoy watching. They're both somewhat aggressive, and from a styles make fights standpoint this could be a fight of the year candidate. These two guys will bring the fight to the other guy, it's not a blind aggression, but it's aggressive.
Cotto has never been known for his defense, but in the small sampling under Freddie Roach it appears he's much improved. Canelo has a pretty good defense, and with all the improvements Miguel has made defensively I still think the advantage is Canelo's.
Both fighters can work pretty good behind the jab, but the two of them have a tendency to get sloppy. They're easily persuaded into brawling. The fighter who keeps his composure will win this fight. I think the two fighters are very close to even offensively.
There is no doubt that Cotto has improved upon what was already damn good under Roach. Our first sampling of him in the ring came against a broken and busted up Sergio Martinez. Anyone who gives him full credit for that win doesn't know much about Sergio Martinez. He beat him. There's no doubt about it, but Martinez was on two bad knees that failed him.
This is not me saying that Cotto couldn't have beaten him anyway, but if he did I think it would have been a more competitive fight. Cotto hits very hard. In his younger days he'd get in there and just bang, because he knew he could take more of their punches than they could his. He's been in there with the best fighters. Cotto knows how to work the ring and manipulate his opponent. They're looking at his style which isn't like anyone else. Cotto is just a little different.
Canelo was out boxed when he faced Floyd Mayweather, and really he was out boxed by both Trout and Lara. Canelo works behind a good guard, but his footwork is not very good for a championship caliber fighter. The fact that his guard is good and he knows how to work behind the jab he's found success. However a quicker fighter can and has beat him. I don't believe that Cotto has the pure boxing skills of Mayweather, Trout, or Lara.
Canelo has beaten all the aggressive type fighter, which Cotto can be, but it's a controlled aggression. When fighters get wild and want to bang it gives Canelo a chance to counter, but against quicker boxers those countering opportunities are not there. Cotto is a mixture of both types of fighter. He's a boxer-puncher. If he is moving and boxing Canelo will have trouble with him. Canelo has power that could stop Miguel Cotto, but he has to land the shots.
Every once in a while they give us the fights we want to see. This is one of those for me. The fighting styles promise this will be a good one. Both of these men will look to box, but the real question is when will it turn into a brawl?
Cotto will try to box with Canelo, but he will not find success that way. He will figure that out early in the fight. I do not believe Miguel Cotto will fight Canelo's fight and just give away rounds. I can see him using good angles and finding a sloppy footed Canelo.
Good technical boxers are the fighters who give Canelo problems. That is not exactly what Cotto is. If Canelo stays true to his style and doesn't make unnecessary changes he should win this fight, however if Cotto is doing what he needs to do then he won't be in front of Canelo in the power zone.
We are not going to see something out of Canelo that we haven't seen before. He'll predictably do what he does, but it's effective against even the best fighters. Cotto will have to be moving and constantly setting up different angles that are not beneficial to Canelo. He'll need to keep him turning all night, and opening up power punching opportunities.
I do not believe Cotto will be able to move Canelo the way he'll need to do in order to win. He will do it and especially early on. Cotto has some bounce in his legs, but eventually he'll start getting picked off and countered. When Canelo starts landing his power shots in the mid to later rounds the fight has the potential to be stopped.
I think Canelo wins in the 11th round by TKO. Damage to Cotto's face will end the fight.