This fight started out as a 50-50 pick'em, but I think the odds have shifted in favor of Lara. Most of the boxing experts are picking him, and the two common opponents have both said they think Lara is the better fighter. Canelo didn't have to take this tough fight. He could have taken another Angulo type opponent to build up his stock. He didn't do it because he wanted to fight the best. Lara says Canelo will regret taking the fight. It doesn't appear that Canelo will win, but he asked for the fight and he really appears confident that he'll win.
The Two Common Fights
Lara and Canelo both fought Alfredo Angulo and Austin Trout. I think Canelo did better against Angulo, and Lara did better against Trout. Canelo proved in his fight with Angulo that he could box from the outside. There was a noticeable improvement in his speed. When Lara took on Trout he totally dominated him. Lara proved he was a better boxer than Trout. Canelo had trouble with Trout and if he hadn't knocked him down then he might not have beat him. So it would seem that Lara would beat Canelo, but then considering that Angulo dropped Lara, well just imagine what Canelo's power shots could do.
The New Canelo Alvarez
Canelo learned a lot from his defeat against Floyd Mayweather. When he needed to box with Mayweather he didn't have the hand speed to do so. He never found opportunities to throw his best punches. He was taken to school, and he clearly took something away from his lesson. Canelo went back to the gym and when he faced Angulo he was much faster. It seems Angulo was a test. Canelo could fight from the outside with his newly increased speed, but if things got rough he felt he could blast Angulo out of there. Canelo blasted him out of there, but it wasn't with one big punch. He beat Angulo with powerful and quick shots. He broke him down and completely dominated him.
Lara Knows He Can Beat Canelo
The only loss on Lara's record is a horrible decision to Paul Williams. The man should be undefeated as it was one of the worst decisions I've ever witnessed. Lara dominated the tall southpaw fighter. I thought he took all but two rounds of the fight. He beat him to the punch all night and didn't have anything on Williams in reach, He out boxed him with an in and out attack that Paul had no answer for.
What does the Williams fight have to do with Canelo?
Lara fought the same fight with Williams that I expect against Canelo. The one fight that Canelo lost was to Mayweather, and he was out boxed in that fight. He's going to take the fight to Lara, because that's what he does, and that's also what Paul Williams did. Lara with his attack and move style out boxed and out pointed him. That is what he'll be doing against Canelo. I believe he knows he can out box him regardless of Alvarez's improvements in that area.
I recently heard that Canelo is the favorite in the fight. I figured that would be Canelo. The loss to Mayweather actually helped his career. The casual fan believes that Canelo is better than Lara, but those in boxing all say Lara wins this one including the two common opponents. I like Canelo and have always liked the slugger type fighters, Tyson, Morrison, Foreman, Fraizer, Patterson, Marciano, etc. However, I believe the better boxer has the advantage over the power punchers. Lennox Lewis out boxed Tyson and Morrison. Ali out boxed Fraizer,Foreman, and Patterson. Marciano never lost but he was losing to Ezzard Charles who was out boxing him before he got caught. Canelo is a power puncher like the others, but since the loss to Mayweather he has improved in the area of boxing.
It still comes down to the power for Canelo. Can he catch Lara for the knockout? I cannot see that happening. I've got Lara by a split decision.