In This Corner

In This Corner

Thursday, September 12, 2013

Fight Prediction: Floyd Mayweather vs Canelo Alvarez

The Fight

When I first heard this fight was going to happen I couldn't believe it. All the experts were saying the fight wasn't going to happen. I wanted the fight to happen and said "Mayweather is ducking Canelo", but clearly that ended up not being the case. I figured that Canelo was a serious up and coming fighter, and as good as the name would look on Floyd's resume he still wouldn't take the chance.

Canelo Alvarez (42-0-1, 30 KOs)

I really like the way that Canelo fights. He stalks his opponent and stays in there. His defense doesn't take him out of the combat zone. It's similar to the peek-a-boo defense used by Mike Tyson, but Canelo reminds me of the late Tommy Morrison. He proved he could box against Austin Trout, however I believe he's a better fighter when he's brawling and trying to corner his opponent. He's got knockout power in both hands.

Floyd Mayweather  (44-0, 26 KOs)

From a style standpoint Mayweather is one of the best fighter of all time. His defense is constant and he strikes from it with extreme precision. The more aggressive his opponent the easier he seems to dismantle them. The guys who try to sit back and pick him off end up having that very thing done to them. Mayweather isn't just undefeated, but he's never really been tested. Nobody has ever made him dig down and find out what kind of heart he has. When Miguel Cotto bloodied his nose; Floyd proceeded to destroy him for the remainder of the fight.


Floyd doesn't typically start very fast. I don't think he will this time either. He'll sit back and see what Canelo intends on doing. Once he's figured out that Canelo is going to come forward he will keep moving and changing the angles while he hits him. It's highly likely that Canelo will become less aggressive and try to box after finding out that Floyd's hands are so much faster. The fight will become semi boring for a couple of rounds while Canelo tries to out box Mayweather. I think he'll quickly realize that he's not trying to out box Austin Trout, and that he'll never beat Floyd if he keeps trying to do so. That's when he'll turn it into a brawl. That opens up the only chance I see for Canelo to win. If he can catch Mayweather it will be from the middle to late rounds.

If Canelo hasn't caught him with something by the eighth round then it probably won't happen. Stamina issues have been a factor in Canelo's longer fights. Mayweather will give him the first round and maybe the second. After that he'll have figured out what Canelo intends to do, and he'll turn his strengths into weaknesses. In round four Canelo tries to box with Floyd. Hopefully Alvarez doesn't try to stay with that strategy, and I don't think he will. Mayweather will outpoint him and leave no chance for Canelo to win. The brawling will put him in Floyd's wheelhouse. Canelo has good defense, but against hand speed like Floyd's it won't be effective. He will be coming straightforward all night. Mayweather will pick him off all night while cruising to a decision victory.

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